传统的经济周期理论及其局限性

Traditional Economic Cycle Theory and Its Limitations

经济周期理论研究分为古典经济周期理论和现代经济周期理论。古典经济周期理论以研究经济总量的周期性波动为主,缺乏系统严谨的理论基础。现代经济周期理论可分为凯恩斯学派和新古典学派两大派别,两大学派以各自的增长理论为基础,在经济周期的内生性与宏观调控政策的有效性问题上存在巨大分歧。新古典学派认为经济周期是外生的,是经济运行对均衡增长状态的暂时偏离,政府政策干预是无效甚至有害的。凯恩斯学派认为经济增长是非均衡的,经济增长周期具有内生性,政府政策干预对刺激经济增长是有效的。

The economic cycle theory research is divided into classical economic cycle theory and modern economic cycle theory.Classical economic cycle theory is given priority to cyclical fluctuations of all economic activity in the research,which is lack of systematically rigorous theoretical basis. Modern cycle theory can be divided into two factions：Keynesian and new classical school and these two schools are based on growth theory from their own respective,and there are great differences on the endogenous in economic cycle and the effectiveness of macro-control policies.New classical school says that the economic cycle is exogenous and is the temporary deviation of balanced growth state of economic operation and government’s policy intervention is ineffective or even harmful.Keynesian school thinks that the economic growth is balanced,and the economic growth cycle is endogenous and the government’s policy intervention is effective to stimulate economic growth.