中国各省离婚率的空间聚集及时空格局演变分析

Spatial Aggregation and Spatial-Temporal Pattern of Provincial Divorce Rate in China

离婚率的上升既有深刻社会背景和时代背景，也凸显了现阶段人们价值观的变化。文章在对离婚率的区域差异性、空间聚集性分析的基础上，针对中国离婚问题的区域特性和时空特征进行统计分析，揭示中国离婚问题的空间演变规律。研究发现：中国各省级行政区离婚率的高、低在空间上呈现出非随机分布；从全局来看，中国各省离婚率一直存在高一高型聚集或低一低型聚集；从各省离婚率的局部聚集特征可以看出，高一高型主要集中在东北3省，低一低型主要集中在我国南部及东南沿海等省份；2004～2012年间，离婚率属于高一高型且显著的热点地区逐渐集中在黑龙江、辽宁、吉林，离婚率属于低一低型且显著的冷点地区从6个减少到只剩1个。

The rising divorce rate has profound social and historical background in China, highlight- ing the changes in the values of people at this stage. To reveal the pattern of spatial-temporal evolution of Chinese divorce rate, this paper conducts a statistical analysis of regional and spatial-temporal characteristics of the changes in divorce rate at the provincial level. The divorce rate of each province in China has a non-random distribution in space, showing a significant positive spatial aggregation in China＇s provinces with high-high or low-low clustering characteristic. Looking at the characteristics of local aggregation in different provinces, the high-high clustering occurs mainly in provinces including Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin, while the low-low pattern mainly in Hainan, Henan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Anhui, Shandong and other south-east provinces.