中国县际经济差异的时空演变趋势:1997—2010

Spatial-Temporal Inequality in Economic Development across Counties in China, 1997-2010

利用1997—2010年中国县级人均GDP面板数据,运用泰尔指数与探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法,在经济市场化、全球化改革与区域发展政策演变的脉络中对中国县际经济发展差异与空间格局进行实证分析。1997—2010年,县域经济表现出较强的空间自相关,存在显著的聚集特征。2003年是近十几年县际差异和空间模式变化的一个拐点,县级人均GDP泰尔指数迅速扩大,Global Moran’s I则逐年下降。县域经济的局部空间关联模式也随之有较大的变化,热点与冷点数量均有所减少,热点区域主要向黄河中游经济带尤其是内蒙古自治区转移,冷点区域逐步"东扩"至南部沿海。随着经济进入"新常态",中国区域经济发展需要兼顾效率与平衡,通过一系列的配套改革,促进区域经济协调发展。

Using county level panel data of GDP per capita of 1997-2010, this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal inequality across counties in the process of economic transitional reforms and regional development policy evolution, by methods of Theil index decomposition and ESDA. The patterns of inequality can be viewed in two different stages, with 2003 a shifting year. After 2003, the inequality pattern began to change obviously, with Theil index growing dramatically, while Global Moran＇ s I declined year by year, By 2010, both the rich and poor counties cluster in much smaller regions. The hot spots move to the Middle Stream of Yellow River, particularly the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, while cold spots of poor counties agglomeration step toward the Southern coastal provinces. As China economy enters the ＇New Normal＇, balance of efficiency and equality should be taken though a series of supporting reforms to achieve the coordinated development across regions.