西北五省经济增长的收敛性及影响因素研究——基于β收敛与空间计量的检验

Study on Convergence and Influencing Factors of Five Northwestern Provinces' Economic Growth——Based on the Convergence and Spatial Econometric Test

本文通过对西北地区人均生产总值的β收敛的检验,发现2007年以来地市级层面上的经济差异正在逐渐变小。绝对β收敛速率为每年2.64%,即要消除一半的经济差距大约需要26.6年的时间。对外开放程度、政府行为等因素作用下的条件β收敛速度提高到4.03%,说明二者对改善西北地区"二元经济结构"具有显著促进作用。然后采用空间滞后模型(SLM)探讨了空间因素对经济收敛的影响,结果表明区域经济增长的不平衡受周边邻居影响非常显著。因此,应从提高对外开放程度和政府公共开支的角度,打破行政区划的壁垒,缩小地区间差异促进区域协调平衡发展。

In this paper,used β convergence test on per capita GDP of five northwestern provinces,we found that since2007 economic differences in the municipal level is gradually reduced. The absolute convergence rate is 2. 64% per year. It needs about 26. 6 years to eliminate the half economic gap. Convergence rate under the condition β factors openness,such as open degree and government actions,increased to 4. 03%. These two factors had a significant effect on improving the economic structure in Northwest China. Meanwhile,spatial lag model（ SLM） explores the effects of space factors on economic convergence. The results showed that the unbalance of the surrounding neighbors had very significant influence on the growth of regional economy.Therefore,we should increase the angle of openness and public expenditure,breaking the barriers of administrative divisions,reducing regional differences in promoting coordinated regional balanced development.