中国碳排放的区域差异实证研究——基于2000～2011年省际面板数据的研究

An Empirical Study of Regional Disparity of China's Carbon Emission

碳排放导致的气候变暖问题已经引起世界各国的高度关注,如何分配减排目标和减排义务成为解决碳排放问题的焦点内容。通过碳排放的差异分析可以评估各区域的减排工作成果和未来的减排潜力,能够为分配减排目标和减排义务提供理论依据。本文首先参考政府间气候变化委员会（Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC）指导目录计量碳排放的方法测算了2000~2011年中国30个省份碳排放量,根据经济发展水平和地理位置相结合的特征,将中国划分为三大经济区域,运用泰尔指数法分解分析了以人口为权重和以经济增长为权重的中国区域碳排放量差异,通过对比分析人口因素和经济发展水平对区域碳排放差异的影响,提出具有针对性的节能减排对策。实证结果表明：（1）中国碳排放存在显著的区域差异,以人口为权重和以经济增长为权重的碳排放总差异整体上都呈下降的趋势;（2）中国区域碳排放的总差异主要来源于区域内差异,其以人口为权重的区域内差异主要是由西部区域内差异引起的,以经济增长为权重的区域内差异主要是由东部区域内差异引起的;（3）以人口为权重碳排放的区域差异小于以经济增长为权重的碳排放区域差异,两种权重下的西部区域内差异总体都呈上升趋势,中部区域内差异都呈明显下降趋势。可以得出结论,在过去的经济发展过程中,宏观调控政策起到了积极的作用,最后基于本文分析,对未来的低碳经济区域发展提出相应的政策建议。

Global warming issue caused by carbon emission has drawn worldwide attention,how to allocate carbon emission reduction target and reduction obligation is the focus content. Through the analysis of carbon emissions regional disparity can assess the emission reduction work achievement and future emission reduction potential. It provides a theoretical basis to allocate emission reduction targets and obligation. Firstly,the article take the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reference method to measure the carbon emissions of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2011,and divided 30 provinces into three major regions according to the economic development level and geographic location combined with the characteristics of china economy,using Theil index empirical analysis China＇s regional disparity weighted by population and economic growth of carbon emissions. The empirical results show that：（ 1） There are significant regional disparities of Chinese carbon emissions. The two weights carbon emission disparities present downward trend;（ 2） Chinese regional carbon emissions disparities are mainly from intra- regional disparity,the regional disparity weighted by population are mainly from the western region and weighted by economic growth are mainly from the eastern region;（ 3） Carbon emissions regional disparity weighted by economic growth are bigger than weighted by population,but the disparities in west region are all uptrend,and the middle regional disparities are a clear downward trend. It can be concluded that the process of economic development and macro- control policy have played a positive role. In the end,appropriate policy recommendations are provided to develop the future low- carbon regional economy.