基于PLS模型的甘肃省耕地保护政策运行效果研究

Operational Effect of the Cultivated Land Protection Policies in Gansu Province Based on PLS Model

采用偏最小二乘法,建立甘肃省耕地面积与耕地保护政策及其它影响因素的PLS回归模型,研究了1997-2013年间甘肃省耕地保护政策体系的运行效果。结果表明:(1)1997-2013年甘肃省出台的耕地保护政策体系对遏制耕地面积减少具有正向效应,它们在控制耕地面积流失上取得了良好的效果。(2)耕地保护政策运行效果呈现明显的阶段性:1997-2000年耕地保护政策效果不明显;2001-2002年效果较明显,两年共计避免损失耕地22.15万hm2;2003-2005年政策运行效果有限;2006-2013年政策运行效果显著,八年共计避免耕地面积减少106.48万hm2。(3)耕地保护政策运行效果的体现具有2-3年的时滞。

In this paper we build the Partial Least Squares Regression Model based on the cultivated land area, the cultivated land protection policies and other impact factors of the cultivated land area in Gansu Province. Then the model was used to explain the operational effect of the cultivated land protection policies issued in 1997 to 2013 in Gansu Province. The conclusions were found as follows ：（1）The cultivated land protection policies issued in 1997 to 2013 had positive effect on curbing the decreasing of cultivated land area.（2） However, the effect of the policies of the cultivated land protection had different phases： During 1997 to2000 the operational effect of the cultivated land protection policies was inconspicuous; During 2001 to 2002 remarkable results were achieved with respect to curbing blind expansion of construction land. The saved cultivated land area adds up to22.15×10^4hm^2in the two years; During 2003 to 2005, the opera-tional effect of the policies was limited; But during 2006 to 2013,the effect of the cultivated land protection policies was very significant. They protected about 106.48 ×10^4hm^2 cultivated land from loss in the eight years.（3） The effect became obvious after the cultivated land protection policies having executed for 2-3 years.