安徽省流行性脑脊髓膜炎空间自相关分析

Spatial Autocorrelation of Epidemic Cerebrospinal Meningitis in Anhui Province

目的利用地理信息系统（Geographic Information Systems,GIS）分析安徽省流行性脑脊髓膜炎（流脑）空间分布规律。方法收集安徽省2004-2013年流脑流行病学监测数据,建立GIS数据库。应用通用空间统计分析软件（Geographic Information Systems,GIS）对建立的GIS数据库进行空间自相关分析。结果全局自相关分析提示,安徽省2005-2010年流脑发病呈现显著的空间聚集模式;2004-2010年流脑局部自相关分析共探测出54个高-高聚集区,以合肥市为最多,2010年以后全省未出现高-高聚集区。结论利用空间自相关分析方法探讨流脑空间分布模式,有助于深入了解安徽省流脑分布规律和流行趋势,为流脑的预防和控制提供参考。

Objective To explore the spatial distribution of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis（ ECM） in Anhui province using geographic information systems（ GIS）. Methods Epidemiological data of ECM were collected from 2004 to 2013,and relevant GIS databases were established. Geo Da software was used to describe the spatial autocorrelation. Results Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that ECM cases were aggregated in Anhui province from 2005 to 2010. A total of 54 regions of high-high aggregation by local spatial association analysis were explored in Anhui province from 2004 to 2010; most cases occurred in Hefei city. No high-high aggregation regions existed during 2011-2013. Conclusions We used spatial autocorrelation to explore spatial distribution of ECM and develop a theoretical basis for identifying additional prevention and control strategies.