南京市流感样病例与气温的关系研究

Analysis on Relationship between Influenza Incidence and Temperature in Nanjing

目的探讨流感发病与气象因素之间的关系。方法收集南京市2010—2013年温度、湿度、气压等每日气象数据和流感样病例监测数据,通过分布滞后非线性模型定量分析内在关系。结果南京市流感样病例好发季节为秋冬季,病例主要人群为15岁以下少年儿童,占81.80%;当日平均温度为14℃时,南京市流感样病例发生的相对危险度最高,当日平均温度在25℃和1℃时,流感样病例发生的相对危险度最低,相对危险度相当于16℃时的74%和75%;在日平均温度低于1℃或高于25℃后,流感样病例发生的相对危险度快速上升;温度对流感样病例的影响存在滞后效应。结论日均气温与流感样病例有明显关联。

Objective To analyze the relationship between the incidence of influenza and meteorological factors in Nanjing. Methods The daily number of cases suffered from influenza-like illness（ ILI） and meteorological data in 2010—2013 were obtained. A distributed lag non-linear models（ DNLM） was used to analyze the relationship between ILI and temperature. Results The peak season of ILI was in autumn and winter,mainly among adolescents and children aged 15 year-old,accounting for 81. 80% of total cases. The relative risk of occurring influenza-like illness in Nanjing was the highest when the daily average temperature was 14℃; it was the lowest when the daily average temperature was 25℃ and 1℃; and the relative risk was 74% and 75% when the daily average temperature was 16℃. The number of cases suffered from influenza-like illness was increased rapidly when the daily average temperature was lower than 1℃ or higher than 25℃. There was a lag effect of temperature on the incidence of influenza-like illness. Conclusion There was a significant relationship between the daily average temperature and the number of cases suffered from influenza-like illness.