人民币实际有效汇率与中国工业制成品对外贸易平衡的长期关系分析

An Analysis on Long-term Relationship Between Foreign Trade Balance of Manufactured Products and Real Effective RMB Exchange Rate in China

以双边名义汇率为基础 ,对 1978～ 1999年期间人民币的名义和实际有效汇率指数进行测算 ,利用协整技术分析中国工业制成品对贸易平衡指标与我国实际国内生产总值、国外实际收入及人民币实际有效汇率之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系 ,实际的人民币贬值改善了我国工业制成品对外贸易平衡状况。

This paper bases on bilateral nominal exchange rates the calculation of nominal and RMB real effective exchange rates foreign over 1978～1999 and analyze the long-term relationship between manufacture trade balance and RMB real effective exchange rates by using cointegration technique. It is found out that there exists the long-term stedy balance relationship among manufactured products foreign trade, china's GDP practical foreign income and real effective RMB exchange rates. Dractical RMB depreciation has improved the balance of our country's manufacture foreign trade.