国内海洋旅游市场规模特征及繁荣度研究

Research on Scale Characteristics of Domestic Marine Tourism Market Development and Its Prosperity Degree

在分析海洋旅游市场影响因素的基础上,通过构建市场测算模型对我国海洋旅游市场的潜在规模以及现实规模进行分析,并通过构建市场繁荣指数模型,借助聚类分析、模糊综合评价等方法对主要海洋旅游目的地的市场繁荣度指数进行研究。结果表明:(1)我国海洋旅游市场潜力较大,客源市场分布主要呈现东西梯度递减的空间格局;(2)我国海洋旅游目的地空间分布呈现出较强的资源、经济双重导向性,即海洋旅游目的地主要集中在环渤海、长三角、泛珠三角等区域;(3)市场繁荣度指数方面,全国总体处于较为繁荣的水平,区域角度则表现出热点地区过热,冷点地区过冷的两极化分布格局。

Based on analyzing the influencing factors of marine tourism market and using market calculation models, the paper analyzes potential scale and reception scale of marine tourism market. Using methods of cluster analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the research studies market prosperity index of main destinations of marine tourism. The results demonstrate that domestic marine tourism market has great potential and show spatial decline characteristics from east to west, and destination markets mainly concentrate on several hot tourism cities. In the market prosperity index, the country is at a prosperous level wholly, while the regions show polarization phenomenon that the hot regions are overheating while the lukewarm regions are super cooling. It relates to travelling experience and economic strength of tourists. Finally the research puts forward relevant suggestions as regards marketing and development of destinations.