河南省经济发展与耕地数量关系的计量分析

Econometrics Analysis of Relationship between Cultivated Land Quantity and Economic Development in Henan Province

基于1978—2011年统计数据,采用计量经济方法对河南省经济发展与耕地数量之间的动态关系进行分析。短期内,河南省耕地数量与人均GDP、地方财政收入之间存在波动,但在12.29%的调整力度下,其长期关系趋于稳定。耕地数量变化对来自人均GDP的冲击反应强烈,而其对人均GDP的解释能力却不断下降。耕地数量变化对增加地方财政收入的作用不断增强,地方财政对耕地保护的投入还不足。协调耕地保护与经济发展之间的矛盾应节约集约利用土地,重构政绩考核体系,引导发展低碳经济;逐步建立全省范围内的耕地保护经济补偿机制。

Based on statistical data from 1978 to 2011, the dynamic relationship between cultivated land quantity change and economic development of Henan Province were studied by econometric methods. Cultivated land quantity, per capita GDP and local fiscal revenue have the long-term balanced relationship, and the velocity of the short-term variation approaching the long-term equilibrium is 12.29%. Economic development influenced the cultivated land quantity strongly, but the explanation capabilities of cultivated land quantity to economic development is falling. The cultivated land quantity change plays an important role in increasing the local fiscal revenue, but the input of the local fiscal revenue to cultivated land is insufficient. Finally the paper pointed out that measures should be adopted to use land economically and intensively, develop land-saving industry and low carbon economy, establish the cultivated land protection economic compensation system to coordinate the contradiction between farmland protection and economic development.