摘要
利用襄阳市1994—2013年产业和城镇化时序数据,用多变量VAR模型、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲分析及方差分解等方法实证分析其产业集群与城镇化之间的互动关系.实证结果表明:襄阳市产业集群与城镇化之间存在长期均衡关系,但互动发展不协调,第二产业集群、第三产业集群与城镇化之间互为因果关系,城镇化是第一产业集群发展的格兰杰原因,且城镇化对第三产业冲击的脉冲响应效果要比第三产业对城镇化的冲击的脉冲效应要强.并提出相关对策和建议实现产城协调发展.
Based on the industrial and urbanization data of 1994—2013 in Xiangyang City, the interactive relationship between industrial clusters and urbanization is analyzed by using multivariate VAR model, co integration test, Granger causality test, impulse analysis and variance decomposition method. Empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium but uncoordinated relationship between the Xiangyang industrial clusters and urbanization, and there is a causal relationship between the second industrial cluster, the three industrial clusters and urbanization, urbanization is the Granger causality of the first industry cluster development and Urbanization Impact on the third industry pulse response to pulse effect is stronger than that of the impact of the three industries to urbanization. In view of the above empirical results, the paper proposes the relevant countermeasures and suggestions to achieve coordinated development of production city.
出处
《湖北文理学院学报》
2015年第11期32-39,共8页
Journal of Hubei University of Arts and Science
基金
湖北省人文社科重点研究基地--鄂北区域发展研究中心重点项目(2015JDZ006)
关键词
襄阳市
产业集群
城镇化
格兰杰因果检验
Xiangyang City
Industry cluster
Urbanization
Granger causality test