基于ARIMA-BP组合模型的民航旅客运输量预测

Prediction of Civil Aviation Passenger Transport Volume Based on ARIMA-BP Combined Model

民航旅客运输量直接影响飞机的采购、机场规模的建设、国家经济的发展等。惟有对中国民航旅客运输量做出较为准确的预测,机场、航空公司及相关企业才能更好地把握行业发展趋势,制定正确的竞争投资战略。运用什么样的方法来分析、准确预测民航旅客运输量是最关心的问题。文中首先详细阐述了ARIMA-BP组合模型的方法及步骤,然后基于民航2005年1月至2013年12月旅客运输量数据作为训练集,建立ARIMA模型和ARIMA-BP组合模型,选取民航2014年1月至2014年12月旅客运输量数据作为检验集,评价模型预测效果。通过仿真实验结果表明,ARIMA-BP模型比ARIMA模型有更好的预测效果。故此模型具有较高的可靠性和实用性,对预测民航旅客运输量有一定导向作用。

Civil aviation passenger transport is directly related to the amount of the procurement of aircraft, airport construction scale, na- tional economic development etc. Only for Chin, ese civil aviation passenger transport volume to make more accurate predictions, airports, airlines and related enterprises can accurately grasp the development trend of the industry and make proper competition and investment strategy. With what method to analyze and accurately predict civil aviation passenger transport volume is most concerned. First elaborated the method and steps of ARIMA-BP combined model in this paper, and then in 2005 January to 2013 December, took civil aviation passenger transport volume data as the training set, established ARIMA and ARIMA-BP combination model, selected in 2014 January to 2014 December,civil aviation passenger transport volume data as a test set to evaluate model prediction effect. Simulation results show that ARIMA-BP model is better than ARIMA model in forecast effect. This model has higher reliability and practicability, which has certain guiding effect on the prediction ,of civil a, iation passenger transport volume.