泥石流危险度的模糊物元评价方法

Fuzzy matter-element evaluation method of risk degree of debris flow

泥石流是我国山区主要地质灾害类型之一,而泥石流危险度评价对于泥石流治理、防灾减灾对策的确定具有重要意义。本文在模糊物元分析原理的基础上,结合信息熵的概念,提出了基于熵权的模糊物元分析方法。在对泥石流危险度进行综合评价时,把危险等级作为物元的事物,以它们的各项评价指标及其相应的模糊量值构造复合模糊物元,通过关联度计算,实现对泥石流危险度综合评价。该模型被应用到乌东德泥石流综合评价中,分类结果与传统分类结果吻合较好,验证了该模型的分类性能良好,预测精度高,误判率低,是泥石流危险度分类的一种有效方法,可以在实际工程中进行推广。

The debris flow is one of the main geologic hazards in mountain areas of China. The risk degree evaluation of the debris flow has the important significance for the treatment debris flow and the determination countermea-sures for disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the principle of the fuzzy matter-element analysis, the paper puts forward a fuzzy matter-element analysis method with weighted entropy combining with the concept of the information entropy. In the comprehensive evaluation of the risk degree of the debris flow, the risk degree is used as the matter element, their evaluation indexes and corresponding fuzzy values are used to structure the compound fuzzy matter element for realizing the comprehensive evaluation of risk degree of debris flow by using the calculation of correlation degree. The model is applied in comprehensive evaluation of the Wudongde debris flow, the classification results of the model are consistent with the traditional classification results, which could verify that the model has the good classification performance, the high forecast accuracy and the low misjudgment rate. As an effective method for the classification of risk degree of the debris flow, the fuzzy matter-element evaluation method could be generalized in the practical engineering.