基于Logistic回归的进境海运集装箱疫情风险分析

Analysis of risk factors in entry container based on Logistic regression

目的探索进境海运集装箱疫情传入的高危风险因素,据此提出防控对策。方法采用独立样本卡方检验考察不同季度、来源地区、货物种类及是否来自疫区的进境集装箱重箱疫情检出率差异,采用非条件Logistic逐步回归分析探索疫情传入的高危风险因素。结果来自非疫区(OR=3.148,P=0.048<0.05)、秋季(OR=4.314,P<0.001)、装载机械机电产品(P<0.001)的入境集装箱疫情风险较高。结论进境海运集装箱卫生状况不容乐观,疫情携带率较高,强化查验人员培训,完善集装箱统计报表,加强集装箱质量分析,建立集装箱风险管理系统,可有效防范疫情入境。

Objective To investigate the high risk factors of entry containers, and to provide control measures. Methods The chi -square test was apply to analyze the detection rate difference of entry containers in quarter, region of origin, type of goods and epidemic area. Logistic regression analysis without condition was used to investigate and explore the high risk factors of epi- demic. Results The risk of entry containers which come from non epidemic （ OR=3. 148, P = 0.048 〈 0.05 ）, entry in au- tumn（ OR = 4.314, P 〈 0. 001 ）, loading machinery and electronic products were higher（ P 〈 0. 001 ）. Conclusion The health situation of entry containers are not optimistic, and disease - carried rate is high. Strengthening training of inspection quarantine personals, perfecting container statistics, enhancing the quality analysis on containers and establishing imported container risk warning system can effectively prevent the epidemic entry.