果树农业气象灾害风险评估与应用研究

On Risk Assessment and Application of Agricultural Meteorological Disasters

灾害风险评估是一项新型研究课题,目前比较普遍的研究方法是灾害风险等级评估.以甘肃天水食用杏为例,从分析影响杏产量形成的气象因素入手,利用统计学方法和风险原理,构建了"基于杏产量损失的农业气象灾害风险评估"、"基于不同农业气象灾害类型的灾害风险评估"和"基于不同农业气象灾害类型和灾害贡献率的灾害风险评估"3种农业气象灾害等级风险评估模型,对1982-2011年30a农业气象灾害对食用杏产量形成影响进行了综合风险评估,灾年(包括小灾、中灾、大灾和特大灾)评估以"基于不同农业气象灾害类型和灾害贡献率的灾害风险评估"方法准确率最高,为90%;"基于杏产量损失的农业气象灾害风险评估"居次,准确率80%,以上2种评估方法评估效果都比较理想,可为多年生果树作物气象灾害风险评估研究提供参考,对农业防灾减灾有一定的指导意义.

Disaster risk assessment is a new research topic and the assessment of disaster risk level is the common research method for the moment.Taking the apricot in Gansu Tianshui as an example and starting with the influence of meteorological factor on apricot yield,In statistical method and risk theory,three agricultural meteorological disaster risk level assessment models have been constructed.Including agriculture meteorological disaster risk assessment based on the loss of apricot yield,disaster risk assessment based on the different types of agricultural meteorological disasters and disaster risk assessment based on the different types and the disaster contribution rate of agricultural meteorological disasters.Through the comprehensive risk assessment to the influence of agricultural meteorological disaster on apricot yield from1982 to 2011,the result shows that the disaster years(including mild,moderate,severe and the worst disaster)assessment accuracy rate of the method disaster risk assessment based on the different types and the disaster contribution rate of agricultural meteorological disasters was highest and was up to 90%.The second was the agriculture meteorological disaster risk assessment based on the loss of apricot yield and the accuracy rate is 80%.The assessment results of the both methods were ideal.The two methods can provide reference for agricultural meteorological disaster assessment of perennial fruit trees and had definite reference value in agricultural disaster prevention and reduction.