基于API模型与新安江模型的察尔森水库洪水预报

Flood forecast of Chaersen reservoir based on API model and Xin′anjiang model

察尔森水库承担着兴安盟地区的防洪、灌溉和供水等任务,其洪水预报具有重要的研究意义。考虑到下垫面条件和降雨分布特征的影响,单一模型或同组参数在该地区很难取得理想的洪水模拟效果,尝试引入分单元新安江模型与API模型分别对察尔森水库洪水进行预报,并分析总结两模型在该地区的适用性。结果表明:两种模型预报结果都较好,且对于大暴雨洪水预报效果更理想;当前期土壤湿润时,分单元新安江模型预报效果更好;当前期土壤干旱、降雨强度较大时,API模型预报效果优于分单元新安江模型。实际作业时根据需要选择模型进行预报,有利于察尔森水库合理调度,提高水库经济效益。

Chaersen reservoir undertakes the important tasks for the hinggan league area,such as irrigation,flood control and so on,its flood forecasting is significance.Due to the hydrogeological condition and characteristics of rainfall distribution,it is difficult to obtain a better simulation by the single model or a set of parameters.This paper used unit Xin′anjiang model and API model to forecast Chaersen reservoir flood respectively,and analyzed the applicability of the two models in the region.The results showed that forecast results by the models all met the requirement of the operational,and especially the heavy flood effect is better;If the antecedent soil is moist,both models were applicable,particularly the Xin′anjiang;If the antecedent soil is drought and rainfall intensity was larger,the Xin′anjiang model is not applicable,it was supposed to choose the API model to forecast.Therefore,it is necessary for us to choose proper model according to the hydrogeological conditions and the characteristics of rainfall distribution to improve the flood forecast accuracy and to direct reservoir regulation,in order to improve the economic effectiveness.