进出口产品多样化的贸易条件改善效应——来自中国制造业的经验证据

Improvement Effect of Import and Export Product Diversification on Terms of Trade:Empirical Evidence from China's Manufacture

本文利用UNCOMTRADE HS96六位码贸易数据测度了中国制造业分行业的贸易条件指数,结果显示,无论是固定产品种类还是考虑产品种类变动,2001-2013年间中国制造业多数行业的贸易条件处于恶化状态。基于动态面板系统GMM方法的实证检验表明,出口产品多样化与人力资本积累对制造业的贸易条件起到了显著的改善作用,而进口产品多样化却恶化了贸易条件。此外,贸易条件变化与进出口产品的替代弹性存在密切关系。

This paper measures the terms of trade index of Chinese manufac- turing sub- sectors by UNCOMTRADE HS96 six digit trade data, finding that the terms of trade of most of Chinese manufacturing sub- sectors deteriorated from 2001 to 2013, no matter the product variety is changed or not. The empiri- cal analysis based on the dynamic panel system GMM method shows that export product diversification and human capital accumulation effectively improve the terms of trade of the manufacturing sector, but import product diversification worsen the terms of trade. In addition, there is a close relationship between the changes of terms of trade and the substitution elasticity of import and export products.