“一带一路”国家的贸易便利化水平测算与贸易潜力研究

Trade Facilitation and Trade Potential of Countries along“One Belt One Road”Route

"一带一路"是中国新时期全方位扩大对外开放战略的重要组成部分,本文构建了一套完整的贸易便利化指标体系,对"一带一路"沿线69个亚欧国家的贸易便利化水平进行测算。通过拓展的引力模型,验证了贸易便利化对"一带一路"沿线国家之间贸易的促进作用大于区域经济组织、进出口国家GDP、关税减免等。贸易潜力研究表明,"一带一路"沿线亚欧国家之间的贸易潜力巨大,贸易便利化水平的提升可以进一步扩大贸易潜力,地区之间的贸易潜力要大于同一地区国家之间的贸易潜力。"一带一路"的建设应重视贸易便利化方面的合作与创新,建立多元化合作机制,实现亚欧大陆的互联互通和共同繁荣。

＂One Belt One Road＂ is an important part of the opening-up strategy of the new era China. This paper constructs a trade facilitation index sys- tem to estimate the trade facilitation levels of 69 Asian and European countries along the ＂One Belt One Road＂ route. An extended Gravity model is further employed to test the impact of trade facilitation on trade between countries along the ＂One Belt One Road＂ route, which proves that the impact of trade facilita- tion is more significant than that of regional economic organizations, GDP, reduc- tion of tariffs and other factors. The study on trade potential suggests that the trade potential between Asia and Europe countries along the ＂One Belt One Road＂ route is enormous, while the enhancement in trade facilitation can further expand the trade potential, and trade potential between regions is greater than that between the countries of the respective regions. This paper argues that for the construction of ＂One Belt One Road＂ importance should be attached to the cooperation and innovations in trade facilitation, and a diversified cooperation mechanism should be established, all in an effort to achieve the interconnection and common prosperity over Asia and Europe.