地方政府债务规模绩效评估、影响机制及优化治理研究

A Study on Performance Evaluation,Influencing Mechanism and Optimal Regulation of Local Government Debt Scale

本文以公共需求偏好匹配标准为导向,设计出债务需求偏好匹配指数作为地方政府债务规模的绩效评估指标,结合我国2002-2012年31个省(市)的相关样本面板数据,对我国省域地方政府债务规模绩效开展实证评估。在此基础上,从地方政府行为视角出发,运用多元选择Logit模型,实证检验了地方政府债务规模绩效的影响机制。实证检验结果表明:地方政府举债活动所处的中国式财政分权的制度环境,以及地方政府在举债过程中面临的晋升激励机制和预算软约束机制,共同显著影响着地方政府债务规模绩效的状况和水平。据此,从改革财政分权制度环境,调整地方政府举债激励和约束机制的制度安排等方面,提出了优化治理我国地方政府债务规模绩效的政策建议。

Guided by preference matching standards of public demand, this paper designs preference matching index of debt demand to be performance evaluation index for local government debt scale, and conducts empirical assessments of performance of local government debt scale by analyzing panel data in China. On this basis, this paper employs multivariate options logit model to empirically examine the influencing mechanism of performance of local government debt scale. The empirical results indicate that the institutional environment for Chinese fiscal decentralization, promotion incentives and budget soft constraints faced by local government debts jointly and significantly influences the performance situation and level of local government debt scale. Hence, this paper proposes several policy suggestions so as to regulate performance of local government debt scale in China in an optimal way.