基于产业结构的北京市水资源承载力模型分析

A Model Analysis of the Carrying Capacity of Water Resources of Beijing on the Basis of Its Industrial Structure

本文将人口、经济增长与水资源的利用融入一个完整的系统中,通过构建一个产业结构内生化的水资源承载力模型,采用数学迭代方法计算出北京市2020年的水资源人口极限承载力为2402万人。这意味着北京市自2013年以后平均每年常住人口数增长不得超过41万人。在控制人口总量过快无序增长的同时,北京市应完善市场经济条件下的水资源管理体制,提升和优化产业结构,适当降低GDP增长预期。

The article builds an industrial-structure-based model by integrating population,economic growth and water resources utilization,and calculates with iterative method that Beijing’s ultimate carrying capacity of water resources in the year 2020 is 24.02 million,which means that the average annual growth of its permanent resident population in the future should not exceed 410,000.It is concluded that Beijing municipality should not only control the excessive growth of its total population,but also improve its water resources management system under the conditions of a market economy,boost and optimize its industrial structure,and appropriately lower its GDP growth expectations.