土石坝漫顶失事模糊随机风险分析

Analysis on earth-rock dam overtopping crash fuzzy random risk

目前极端气候频发,土石坝漫顶失事事件时有发生。本文针对超标准洪水作用下土石坝漫顶失事事件发生问题,研究了随机风险率计算的蒙特卡罗方法,筒述了其求解过程,并利用可靠度的知识,引入模糊因子来对漫顶失事的模糊随机风险进行建模分析。结果表明,该思路可行。随着超高临界值Z的增大,对降低土石坝漫顶破坏风险率的改善效果明显。从其安全判别分析方法和预测结果来看,该方法判别正确率较高,从而可以较科学地指导土石坝漫顶失事随机风险分析模型,有效减少土石坝漫顶失事事件的发生。

Extreme weather is frequent currently,and earth-rock dam overtopping crash accident occurs sometimes.In the paper,Monte Carlo method of random risk rate calculation is studied aiming at earth-rock dam overtopping accident occurrence under excessive flood effect.The solving process is briefly introduced.Reliability knowledge is utilized,and fuzzy factor is introduced for modeling analysis on fuzzy random risk of overtopping crash.Results show that the concept is feasible.The improvement effect on lowering earth-rock dam overtopping damage risk rate is prominent with the increase of super-high threshold Z.The safety discriminant analysis method and forecast results show that the method has higher discriminant accuracy,and thereby random risk analysis model of earth-rock dam overtopping crash can be guided more scientifically.Earth-rock dam overtopping crash accidents can be effectively reduced.