技术差距与经济增长收敛性:来自省际面板数据的实证检验

Technology Gap,Convergence of Economic Growth: Empirical Test Based on Provincial Panel Data

将技术差距引入内生技术增长模型,结合1997—2013年我国省际面板数据,通过模型和实证检验考察技术差距与经济增长和经济收敛性关系,结果发现:(1)技术进步表现出倒"V"形走势且地区阶梯性特征突出,技术差距与经济增长存在非线性关系,技术进步对经济增长作用的门限效应显著。其中,东部地区普遍位于门限值左侧而中西部地区则处于右侧。(2)宏观经济和地区经济分别表现出!收敛和俱乐部收敛特征,东部地区年均收敛速度要大于西部地区,技术差距扩大将阻碍技术进步和经济增长。因此,我国各地区应准确定位自身技术水平及经济水平,选择与本地区资源禀赋相契合的技术;就已经跨越技术差距门限值的少数东部发达省份而言,应更加注重自主创新;同时,有关方面应调整人力资本结构以适配物质资本积累、经济发展水平和引入的技术水平,引导人力资本从东部和发达地区向中部和西部地区流动,加强基础教育并建设多层次教育体系,保证人力资本长效性和多层次性,注重培养专业型人才以解决其供需失衡问题。

This paper introduces technology gap to endogenous technology growth model,and examinesthe relationship of technology gap,economic growth and economic convergence with region panel data of1997—2013 in China. The results show that:( 1) Technological progress presents inverted V-shaped direction and area's feature is outstanding; there exists nonlinear relation between technology gap and economic growth;the threshold effect is remarkable; eastern regions are generally located in the left of the threshold and central and western regions in the right.( 2) The macro economics and regional economics behave the ! convergence and club convergence respectively; the eastern average annual convergence speeds faster than the western; the technical gap increase will hinder technological progress and growth. Therefore,areas in China should pinpoint their technology and economic level,and select technology which corresponds to their resources endowment.The minority of developed eastern areas which has crossed the threshold of technology gap shall pay more attention to independent innovation. We shall adjust the structure of human capital in order to fit physical capital accumulation,economic development level and the level of technology introduction,guide human capital from the eastern developed regions to central and western regions,strengthen basic education and construct multilevel education system,guarantee the long-term effectiveness and multi-levels of human capital,and train professional experts in order to solve the imbalance between supply and demand.