2015年11月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in China's Mainland,November 2015

目的评估2015年11月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往流行特点分析,预计11月全国总报告事件数与往年一样会有所上升,但不会超过往年同期水平。11月我国内地出现人感染H7N9禽流感及其他可感染人类的禽流感散发病例的可能性将增大。季节性流感等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高。中东呼吸综合征输入我国的风险依然存在,但输入风险较前期有所下降。诺如病毒所致病毒性腹泻将进入高发季节。我国北方地区将逐步进入燃煤取暖季节,非职业性一氧化碳中毒人数将明显上升。结论预计2015年11月全国总体报告的突发公共卫生事件数将上升,但不会超过往年同期水平;需重点关注人感染禽流感疫情,也要做好中东呼吸综合征、诺如病毒腹泻和非职业性一氧化碳中毒的预防控制工作。

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in November 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts from all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies,it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would increase in November 2015,however,the level would not be higher than the average level during the same periods in previous years. The incidence of sporadic human infections with influenza A（ H7N9） and other avian influenza viruses might increase. Nowit is the season of seasonal influenza,more influenza and other respiratory disease cases might occur. There is still the probability of importation of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome（ MERS）,but the risk would be lower than in previous months. Norovirus outbreaks would be more frequent. The incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would increase in northern China due to coal fired heating. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would increase in China in November 2015,but the level would not exceed the levels during the same periods in previous years. It is necessary to pay close attention to human infection with avian influenza virus,and the prevention and control of MERS,norovirus infection and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning should be strengthened too.