甘肃新型农村社会养老保险基金发放预测与改进建议——以罗山乡为例

The Prediction of the New-type Rural Social Pension Insurance Payment and the Corresponding Suggestions for Improvement——Based on the Data of Luoshan

依据甘肃省环县罗山乡2011年至2013年的新型农村社会养老保险基金发放金额,通过建立ARMA模型,预测了甘肃省环县罗山乡2015~2016年新型农村社会养老保险基金的发放金额,分析了当前甘肃新型农村社会养老保险发展中存在的问题,为甘肃新型农村社会养老保险提出了几点针对性的改进建议。

According to the new rural social pension insurance payment data of Luoshan country of Qingyang city,Gansu province from 2011 to 2013, through the establishment of the ARMA model, we predicted its＇ new ruralsocial pension insurance payment. The result suggest that the new rural social pension insurance payment is on theupward trend in total,but it still exist some problems, such as the slow growth speed, lack financial support, Lowlevels of participation and regional development convergence and so on. So we should set the affordability index、increase farmers＇ income and strengthen the policy advocacy, through taking these measures to improve the currentsituation.