收入差距对商品房政策调控效果的影响——基于主体建模的分析

The Impact of Income Gap on the Regulating Effect of Commercial Housing Policy:An Analysis Based on Agent Modeling

运用计算经济学中基于主体建模的方法,以限购政策和房产交易税政策为例,设计并构建了一个研究商品房市场主体行为的实验模拟系统(PEA2.0),用以分析收入差距对商品房政策执行效果的影响。结果表明,限购政策和房产交易税政策都具有降低商品房价格、提高居民住房持有率、降低居民多套住房拥有率的效果,但这种政策效果的实现程度会受到收入差距的影响。随着收入差距的增大,政策的调控效果会被逐渐削弱,商品房平均价格随之上升,拥有商品房居民主体的比率随之下降,拥有多套住房居民主体的比例随之上升。为此,政府一方面应根据房地产市场的发展态势适时出台相应的调控政策,另一方面应在缩小收入差距方面继续努力,以使政府对房地产市场供求结构的调整更加有效。

By employing the agent modeling method of computational economics and taking the house purchase quota policy and the reality transfer tax policy as examples, this paper designs and constructs a housing market simulation model （PEA2.0） so as to analyze the impact of income gap on the effect of commercial housing policy. The results indicate that both the house purchase quota policy and the reality transfer tax policy have the effect of lowering the prices of commercial houses, increasing the residential housing holding rate, and reducing the residents＇ multi-house ownership rate. However, the realizing of this kind of policy effect is affected by the income gap. With the widening income gap, the regulating effect of policies will be reduced gradually, the average price of commer- cial housing will rise, the commercial house ownership rate will drop, and the rate of residents with multi-house ownership will rise. Therefore, the government should not only make relevant regulating policies according to the development of the real estate market, but also make great efforts to narrow the income gap, so as to have a more effective adjustment of the demand-supply structure in the real estate market.