摘要
之前的学者对于中国石油产量及峰值的预测大都是根据的2000年以前的数据进行的，预测结果已经不具有准确性。本文将根据1990～2013年中国石油产量的最新数据分别利用Hubbert模型、广义翁氏模型、HCZ模型三种模型，预测中国石油的年产量以及峰值。尽管国外的大多数专家认为Hubbert模型是最适合石油预测的模型，但本文将三种模型的预测值和实际产量值进行对比，得出广义翁氏模型预测的结果更贴近实际值，更加适合中国石油产量的预测。面对即将到来的石油产量峰值，中国主要采取减少本土石油产量、投资国外资源、进行能源替代等多种应对策略。
About the projections for China＇s oil production and peak, previous scholars are mostly based on data from 2000 years ago. The predicted results has already not be accurate. This article Will predict China＇s oil production and peak on the basis of the latest data from 1990 to 2013 by Hubbert model, generalized WengShi model and HCZ model. Most {oreign experts think the Hubbert model is most suitable model for the projections of oil production and peak. But the comparison results of three models predicted values and actual values in this paper show that the predicted results of generalized WengShi model are more close to the actual value and more suitable for China＇s oil production foresting. Facing to the upcoming peak of oil production,China adopted a variety of strategies, such as reducing domestic oil production, investment overseas resources and alternative energy, etc.
出处
《中国矿业》
北大核心
2015年第12期38-44,共7页
China Mining Magazine
基金
页岩气等温吸附模型研究项目资助(编号:PLN1314)
