货币超发导致居民消费物价上涨：质疑与论证

Supper-currency Lead to the Rise of Consumer Prices:the Questions and Arguments

众所周知,"政府印钞"是缓解危机时期国民经济持续下行的有效手段,它对于创造有效需求,提振本国经济具有重要作用。但是,货币超发与泡沫激增、通货膨胀时常如影随形,"政府印钞"的后果究竟是良药苦口还是抱薪救火俨然成为一个颇为值得商榷的问题。针对现实中"货币超发导致居民消费物价上涨"的论断,通过考察我国居民消费价格指数受货币发行因素的影响程度,研究表明,居民消费物价与货币发行之间并不存在显著关系;分析结果并不能反映出货币发行引起居民消费价格指数的变动;笔者认为央行的货币发行是顺应物价波动的调控行为,不会对物价产生影响;居民的现金交易行为对物价的影响总体有限。从现金投放与消费物价指标的继起关系看,货币发行的增减与物价变动存在一定规律性,但是货币发行的变动滞后于物价波动,说明现金投放作为央行的政策调控手段,通常是应物价变动而改变,政策本身不会过多干预物价的波动。

As everyone knows, ＂money-printing＂ is nomic downturn in the period of crisis, which also playing the effective measure to slow down the pace of ecoan important role in creating effective demand, and boosting the domestic economy. However, super-currency is always followed by bubble boom and inflation, the consequences of ＂money-printing＂ is a good medicine but tastes bitter or adds fuel to the fire has become rather serious questionable. For the judgment ： super-currency induces the rise of CPI, we examined the effect of China＇s CPI by currency issue. Research shows that there is no relationship between CPI and currency issue, the analysis results can＇t reflect the phenomenon that monetary issue induces the changes in the consumer price index, We suggest that currency issue is the control behavior of price fluctuation, which has no effect on price, the behave of residents cash transactions has limited impact on prices. From the following relationship between cash delivery and CPI, there is a certain regularity between increase of currency price changes, but the currency issue lags behind the change of commodity prices, which illustrates the cash delivery is the central bank＇s policy control measures which usually make the changes as the price changed, the policy does not make great influence on price fluctuations.