入世以来中国对日本农产品出口可持续性研究

Study on Sustainable Relationship of Agricultural Exports between China and Japan

中国农产品出口可持续性问题近年得到理论界关注,考虑到国别层面目的国市场属性和市场地位的广泛差异,笔者选择我国农产品最大目的地日本作为研究对象,运用生存分析法考察其出口可持续性,具有理论与实践的双重价值。研究发现:第一,日本市场的平均生存率要高于中国农产品出口总体及中美农产品出口生存率,日本的进口依赖、传统市场地位、地理区位及产品运输方式是主要影响因素;第二,不同属性产品对于日本市场的适应性存在较大区别,单段出口关系更加稳固;第三,基于日本高关税壁垒及特定的非关税壁垒所引致的厂商可变和固定成本、利润边际变动,小规模、低生产率厂商贸易关系更容易中止;第四,从出口深化看,三分之二的幸存关系贸易量得到增长。基于此,笔者提出通过推广代工模式、扩大外资引进及紧密产业垂直联系、解决流动性约束等途径帮助占出口比重一半以上的小微农业企业发展壮大,将有助于中国对日本农产品出口贸易关系的生存率提升及进一步深化。

Issues on sustainability of China＇s agricultural exports have attracted attention of Chinese authors recently. In view of difference in destinations features and market status, the author used the largest destination, Japan, as the sample to analyze the sustainable exports relationship, which was valuable in both theory and practice. The results showed： firstly, average surviving rate in Japan market was much higher than the general level and that in US market because of Japan＇s dependant in imports, traditional markets status, geographic location and products transportation mode; secondly, various products had different performance and single trade relationship was more steady; thirdly, higher viariable and fixed costs due to Japan＇s specific trade barriers had made more and more small-scale agricultural firms exit earlierly; fourthly, 2/3 survived relationships trade volunme growth in exports deepening. According to the results, the author argued that OEM, more FDI, close vertical relationship and solving liquidity constraint will help small-scale firms grow and contribute to sustainability of China＇s agricultural exports to Japan market.