摘要
在经济增长动力不足的当下,通过城镇化手段刺激内需进而拉动经济增长是必要举措。但中国城镇化模式是否粗放,是否有助于转变经济增长方式,却尚未被解答。为此,本文摒弃测算TFP增长率的新古典条件,放松生产函数形式、规模报酬不变和技术进步希克斯中性的要求,给出要素贡献率的非参数测算方法。在方法创新的基础上,本文实证研究显示:1985—2012年资本对中国经济增长的贡献率为64.15%,占主导地位;劳动贡献率为3.26%,能源贡献率为21.75%,而TFP贡献率仅为10.84%,因此样本期间经济增长方式较为粗放,并且从趋势上看这种粗放性没有显著改善。回归分析表明,相比中国的工业化和服务业化而言,以往的城镇化比较粗放,阻碍了经济增长方式转变。因此,在经济新常态下转变经济增长方式更应当注重转变城镇化模式。
Due to the lack of momentum of China＇s economic growth, stimulating domestic demand by urbanization is necessary. However, it is unclear whether China＇s urbanization pattern is extensive and whether it helps economic transformation. This paper rejects all the neoclassical conditions, and gives a new measurement of factor-contributions. Empirical results show as follows. From 1985 to 2012, the contribution rate of capital is 64. 15%, and the contribution rates of labor, energy and TFP are respectively 3.26%, 21.75%, and 10. 84%. Therefore the economic growth pattern is extensive. Additionally, regression analysis shows that, compared with China＇s industrialization and services, urbanization is more extensive. Therefore, in the new period, the key of China＇s economic transformation is the transformation of urbanization pattern.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第12期94-109,共16页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
"中央在京高校重大成果转化项目(京津冀协同一体化发展研究)"
教育部人文社会科学基金项目(15YJA790049)的资助
关键词
经济增长方式转变
经济增长动力
城镇化
transformation of economic growth pattern~ growth momentum~ urbanization
