ENSO事件与海南农垦橡胶白粉病发生流行的关系

Relationships between ENSO and epidemics of powdery mildew of rubber tree in Hainan State Farm

应用数理统计方法对1962-2009年海南农垦橡胶白粉病病情指数数据及ENSO事件发生年的历史资料进行了分析,结果表明,厄尔尼诺事件发生后,大多数情况下次年橡胶白粉病的病情指数增加;拉尼娜事件发生后,大多数情况下次年橡胶白粉病的病情指数降低。卡方检验结果表明,次年橡胶白粉病病情指数增加与厄尔尼诺事件的发生有显著的关联,Spearman相关性分析也表明,ENSO事件的发生和海南农垦次年橡胶白粉病病情的距平值之间有显著的正相关性。

The data of disease index of powdery mildew of rubber tree in Hainan State Farm and occurrence of ENSO events in 1 962-2009 were analyzed by using mathematical statistics methods.The results indicated that the disease index of powdery mildew of rubber tree increased in the year following El Ni？o,while the disease index of powdery mildew of rubber tree decreased in the year following La Ni？a.The increase of disease index in the fol-lowing year was associated with the occurrence of El Ni？o based on Chi-square analysis.There was also significant positive correlation between the anomaly value of disease index and the occurrence of ENSO based on Spearman correlation analysis.