生长期气候变化对我国油菜单产的影响研究——基于1985-2011年中国省域面板数据的实证分析

Impact of climate change in rapeseed's growing seasons on rapeseed production in China

油菜生产与气候变化息息相关。利用1985-2011年我国油菜主产区12个省的油菜生产及气象面板数据实证分析了生长期气候变化对我国油菜单产的影响。研究表明:(1)1985-2011年间我国油菜主产区气候变化呈现气温升高、降水量略微减少的暖干化趋势。(2)生长期气候变化对我国油菜单产有显著的影响,在其他条件不变的情况下,生长期平均温度每升高1℃将导致油菜单产减少0.74%-2.92%,平均降水量每减少10mm将导致油菜单产增加1.64%-13.61%。

Rapeseed production is closely related to climate change. By using the rapeseed production and climate data of China＇s 12 rapeseed- producing provinces from 1985 to 2011,we made an empirical analysis of the influence of climate change in rapeseed＇s growing seasons on rapeseed production in China. The main conclusions are as follows： 1） From 1985 to 2011,the climate in China＇s rapeseed- producing area presented a trend of temperature rising and precipitation slightly dropping. 2） Climate change in growing seasons had a significant influence on China＇s rapeseed production. If other conditions didn＇t change,every 1℃ increase in the average temperature in growing seasons led to 0. 74% to 2. 92% decrease in rapeseed production and every 10 mm drop in average precipitation led to 1. 64% to 13. 61% rise.