基于海表温度和海面高度的东太平洋大眼金枪鱼渔场预测

Forecasting of Bigeye tuna fishing ground in the Eastern Pacific Ocean based on sea surface temperature and sea surface height

开展东太平洋大眼金枪鱼(Thunnus obesus)渔场预报技术研究,建立基于多环境因子渔场预报模型,将对该资源的高效开发和利用具有重要的意义。作者根据2009~2011年东太平洋海域(20°N^35°S、85°W^155°W)延绳钓生产统计数据,结合海洋遥感获得的表温(SST)和海面高度(SSH)的数据,运用一元非线性回归方法,以渔获量为适应性指数,按季度分别建立了基于SST和SSH的大眼金枪鱼栖息地适应性指数,采用算术平均法获得基于SST和SSH环境因子的栖息地指数综合模型,并用2012年各月实际作业渔场进行验证。研究结果显示,大眼金枪鱼渔场多分布在SST为24~29℃、SSH为0.4~0.8 m的海域。指数模型较好地拟合了因子适应性曲线(P<0.05)。基于栖息地指数的2012年大眼金枪鱼中心渔场预报准确性平均达63%,可为金枪鱼延绳钓渔船寻找中心渔场提供指导。

The technology research of fishing ground prediction for bigeye tuna in the eastern Pacific and the estab-lishment based on fishing ground prediction model of multiple environmental factors are of great importance for the efficient development and utilization of its resources. Bigeye tuna,Thunnus obesus, is one of the important tunas in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, and also one of the main fishing targets for Chinese tuna longline fishery. In this paper, based on the catch data from longline fishery in the areas （20±N-30±S and 85±-155±W） of Eastern Pacific Ocean during 2009-2011 and the environmental data from remote sensing including sea surface temperature （SST） and sea surface height （SSH）, the catch is considered as the suitability index, and the suitability curves based on SST and SSH for one quarter were established by using a non-linear regression. The habitat suitability index model was set up by using arithmetic mean model （AMM）, and was validated by using the actual catch data in 2012. The results showed that the fishing ground of bigeye tuna is located in the waters with 24-29℃ SST and 0.4-0.8 m SSH. The SI curve of each factor by using nonlinear regression is significant （P〈0.05）. Forecast accuracy of fisheries center is 63%, which is a high forecast accuracy. This forecasting model will play a guide role for fishing fleets in the tuna longline fishery.