消费性财政支出效率与最优支出规模:基于经济增长的视角

A Study of Optimal Scale from Fiscal Consumption Expenditure Efficiency Based on the Perspective of Economic Growth

本文构建了一个包含两种政府财政支出类型的内生增长模型,并重点分析了经济增长目标下最优的消费性支出规模。理论研究表明,政府进行适度的消费性财政支出可以发挥公共消费品的外部性功能,优化资源配置,促进经济增长;不足或过度的消费性财政支出都将会阻碍经济增长目标的实现。数值分析表明消费性财政支出与经济增长之间存在着倒"U"型关系。实证研究显示:2000—2006年间,中国三大经济地带政府消费性财政支出对于经济增长呈现显著的促进作用;但在2009—2012年间,政府消费性财政支出已接近最优支出水平,其对经济增长的促进作用有所减弱,西部地区尤其如此。本文得出如下政策启示:政府消费性财政支出存在着一个最优的支出规模,它与不同时期的经济发展状态密切相关,应依据经济发展状况优化调整消费性财政支出,以尽可能促进经济的最优增长。

This paper establishes an endogenous growth model with two different types of government fiscal expenditure, and analyzes the optimal fiscal consumption expenditure with economic growth maximization. Our theoretical findings are as follows： the proper fiscal consumption expenditure can optimize allocation of resources, promote economic growth and realize positive externalities of public consumption goods; the excessive or insufficient fiscal consumption expenditure will give the negative effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, the paper through numerical analysis demonstrates that the fiscal consumption expenditure＇ s impact on the economic growth can be described in an inverted ＂U＂ form. By empirically analyzing the influence of the fiscal consumption expenditure on the economic growth, we find that the relationship between these two variables is strongly positive in the period of 2000-2006, but the positive influent becomes weaker in the period of 2009-2012 with the actual fiscal consumption expenditure getting close to the optimal expenditure, especially in the western region. The consumption structure of the economic development level influences the optimal fiscal consumption expenditure. The government should assess the economic situation and adjust the scale of fiscal consumption expenditure accordingly so as to achieve steady economic growth.