多方式诱导下通勤出行链交通方式组合选择行为模型

Modelling combined mode choice behavior of commute trip chain under multi-modal guidance

从出行链的角度出发研究多方式诱导信息对通勤出行方式选择的影响。通过RP&SP调查获取通勤者的实际和意向出行链数据,建立了综合考虑尺度系数差异、非显化异质性效应和参照依赖效应的mixed logit模型,并设计仿真方法求解。结果表明,尺度系数差异解释了RP数据与SP数据融合时隐含的方差差异;异质性和参照依赖效应的引入可以度量偏好差异较大的随机变量的影响程度,反映随机变量的偏好分布;综合考虑3种因素的mixed logit模型比多项logit模型和普通mixed logit模型的精度高,解释能力更强。参数标定结果表明:多方式诱导信息服务对引导小汽车通勤出行链转向其他交通方式有积极作用,有利于从源头上缓解道路交通拥堵。

To study the influence of multi-modal guidance information on the travel mode of commuters from the viewpoint of trip chain,A Revealed Preference（RP）and Stated Preference（SP）survey was carried out to get the revealed and stated trip chain data.Then a mixed logit model,which takes scale parameter difference,heterogeneity and reference dependence effect into account,was established.A simulation method was proposed to complete estimation.The estimation results show that the introduction of scale parameter difference is helpful to explain the unobvious variance differences between RP data and SP data when they arecombined together;the adoption of heterogeneity and reference dependence effects are not only conductive to measure the impacts of some variables,whose random preferences vary obviously across individuals,more accurately,but also benefits to reflect the preference distribution of random variables.The accuracy and predictive capacity of the mixed logit model considering the three aspects are better than the multinomial logit model and the ordinary mixed logit model.It is also manifested that multi-modal guidance information service contributes to encourage commuters to shift from car trip-chain to other modes,and helps to ease traffic congestion at source.