基于物质流分析方法的唐山市经济与环境关系的协整检验和分解

Cointegration test and variance decomposition for the relationship between economy and environment based on material flow analysis in Tangshan City,Hebei,China

利用物质流分析方法(MFA)建立物质流账户,分析唐山市在经济-环境系统运行中物质投入量与产出量的阶段特征及物质投入和产出强度对经济发展的影响程度;使用计量经济学模型分别对国内生产总值(GDP)、直接物质投入(DMI)和直接废弃物排放(DPO)进行单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正分析、脉冲响应和方差分解分析,探索了备指标之间的双向作用机制和长期关系.结果表明:1992-2011年唐山市DMI和DPO均呈增长趋势J)MI的增幅高于DPO.DMI投入强度呈增长趋势,DPO产出强度呈波动下降趋势.GDP与DMI、DPO之间存在着长期稳定协整关系指标间的作用关系经历了由波动到逐步平稳的.过程DMI与DPO在短期内会对经济发展起到较强的正向冲击作用,但是经济-环境系统会逐步消化这些影响,并对系统内外指标进行短期的动态调整最终使系统表现出一种长期的均衡关系;经济发展受到经济规模效应的影响逐步增加.将备指标对GDP的贡献度予以分解,其中,DMI的贡献度上升,GDP的贡献度下降,DPO的贡献度变化不大.总体上唐山市的经济发展遵循了资源型城市的传统生产轨迹,较大程度上依赖于物质投入,高能源消耗又加剧了环境污染.

The material flow account of Tangshan City was established by material flow analysis（MFA） method to analyze the periodical characteristics of material input and output in the operation of economy-environment system,and the impact of material input and output intensities on economic development.Using econometric model,the long-term interaction mechanism and relationship among the indexes of gross domestic product（GDP）,direct material input（DMI）,domestic processed output（DPO） were investigated after unit root hypothesis test,Johansen cointegration test,vector error correction model,impulse response function and variance decomposition.The results showed that during 1992-2011,DMI and DPO both increased,and the growth rate of DMI was higher than that of DPO.The input intensity of DMI increased,while the intensity of DPO fell in volatility.Long-term stable cointegration relationship existed between GDP,DMI and DPO.Their interaction relationship showed a trend from fluctuation to gradual ste adiness.DMI and DPO had strong,positive impacts on economic development in short-term,but the economy-environment system gradually weakened these effects by short-term dynamically adjusting indicators inside and outside of the system.Ultimately,the system showed a long-term equilibrium relationship.The effect of economic scale on economy was gradually increasing.After decomposing the contribution of each index to GDP,it was found that DMI＇ s contribution grew,GDP ＇ s contribution declined,DPO＇ s contribution changed little.On the whole,the economic development of Tangshan City has followed the traditional production path of resource-based city,mostly depending on the material input which caused high energy consumption and serous environmental pollution.