中国冬季气温的时空特征分析

Characteristics of Winter Temperature in China

分析我国冬季气温的时空变化特征为冬季气温的预测提供参考。研究我国冬季以50a为研究时段（1960-2009年）的201个台站,逐日均一化处理的平均气温、最高气温和最低气温资料数据,采用经验正交函数分解、旋转主成分分析和M-K突变检验等方法,分析冬季平均气温、最高气温和最低气温的时空变化特征和区域特征。结果表明：1960~2009年我国冬季平均气温、最高气温和最低气温在全国冬季一致为异常偏冷或异常偏暖的特征,且在研究时段内气温均呈上升趋势;近50a来我国的冬季平均气温、最高气温和最低气温南方的均方差普遍小于北方;三者在全国均呈上升趋势,其中平均气温和最低气温在全国绝大部分地区上升趋势显著,南方趋势系数小于北方。

In order to find out the winter weather characteristics and offer the weather forecast, with the time variation and regional characteristics of average,maximum and minimum winter temperature were analyzed orthogonal function, rotated principal component analysis and Mann-Kendall method through homogenizing the daily average, maximum and minimum winter temperature data （1960- 2009） based on 201 stations （without influence of homogenization as relocation of station） in China. Results showed that winter temperatures of average, maximum and minimum were unusually relatively cold and warm, of which trend was up on average in 50 years. The quadratic mean deviation of average, maximum and minimum winter temperatures （1960-2009） in north was more than in south. The trend of all three （average, maximum and minimum winter temperature） was up and trend of average and minimum temperature was remarkably upward in almost national parts and northern trend coefficient was larger than the southern.