欧债危机对我国就业的影响

Impact of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis on the Employment in China

本文采用系数以及扰动项均具有时变性的TVP-VAR模型,并利用2001年第1季度-2013年第3季度的宏观数据,探讨了欧债危机对我国就业的影响。研究结果表明,从整体上来看,欧债危机在危机刚刚开始时对我国的就业影响不大,随着时间的推移,影响逐渐变大,3-4个月后达到最大,之后慢慢减小,到2年之后影响最终变为零。欧债危机所导致的我国对德国的出口总额的减少以及外商直接投资的减少,对我国就业的影响最大。欧债危机所导致的我国对荷兰、俄罗斯、英国、＂欧猪五国＂的出口总额的减少,也对我国的就业产生了一定的影响。

We employ the TVP-VAR model and the data for a period from the first quarter of 2001 to the third quarter of 2013 from China to examine the impacts of the European sovereign debt crisis on the employment in China.1 Literature review The existing literature mainly focuses on the impact of Asian financial crisis in 1997 and financial crisis in 2008 on the employment in the respective countries.Joseph Y.Lim（2000）investigates the impacts of Asian financial crisis in 1997 on the employment by sex in Philippines.Joonmo Cho Jaeho Keum（2004） utilizes Logistic model to examine the impacts of Asian financial crisis in 1997 on instability of labor market in Korea.John Gennard（2009）reveal that the financial crisis in 2008 lead to high employment rate and lost jobs.Marilyn Achiron Rory J.Clarke（2009） find that the financial crisis in 2008 has resulted in lost jobs and unemployment in OECD countries.Alina Hagiu Emilia Ungureanu（2010） investigate the impacts of the financial crisis in 2008 on the automobile industry in Romania and the member countries in Europe.Trevor Evans（2011） examines the economic and social impacts of the financial crisis in 2008 and the European sovereign debt crisis in European Currency Zone.Ngan Collins（2011） suggest that the slow-down of Vietnamese economy can be seen from the decrease in both export and FDI after the financial crisis in 2008.Jikun Huang et al.（2011） reveal the impacts of the financial crisis in 2008 on the non-agricultural labors in rural areas in China.David Kucera（2012） utilizes Leontief multiplier of SAMs to investigate the decrease of trade during 2008 and 2009 on the employment in India and South Africa.Yana Van Der Meulen Rodgers et al.（2012）study the impacts of price increase of food and energy,and financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 on the employment of college students in Philippines.Ding Xiaohao Yue Changjun（2013） examine the financial crises in 2008 on the employment of college students in China.However,there has not been literature on the impacts of the European sovereign debt crisis on the employment,especially in China.In addition,Leontief multiplier and the Logistic models are commonly adopted in the similar studies.2 Variables and data We employ the quarterly data from Ql 2001 to Q3 2003.The European sovereign debt crisis is represented by the growth rate of total export and FDI in PIGs,and Germany,Neverland,UK,Russia from Europe.The data of total export comes from DOT（Direction of Trade Statistics among eLibarary-data） from IMF while the data of FDI is from Statistical Data Base,China Economic Website.The employment in China is represented by the growth rate of urban employment from Statistical Data Base,China Economic Website.The control variables include GDP growth rate from China Statistics Year Book.3 Empirical Results and conclusion We find that the European sovereign debt crisis has significant impact on the employment in China It has little effect on the country＇s employment at the beginning of the crisis period.The impact becomes greater with time,reaching to its maximum level in 3- 4 months,and then slowly decreases.The effect finally becomes zero in two years.We also find that the decrease of exports to Germany and the decrease of inward foreign direct investment caused by the European sovereign debt crisis will have the significant impacts on the employment in China.The employment will decrease by 1.5%if the growth rate of total export to Germany and the growth rate of inward FDI decrease by 1% respectively.The decreases of exports to Netherlands,Russia,Britain,and ＂PIIGS＂ caused by the European sovereign debt crisis have also the effects on the employment in China to some extent The growth rate of urban employment in China will decrease by 1.3%,1.2% and 1.1% respectively if the growth rate of total export to Netherlands and Russia,to the UK,and to PIGs decreases by 1%.