生产要素流动、区域外贸增长与转型升级——基于PVAR的实证分析

Flow of Production Factors,Region Foreign Trade Growth and Transformation and Upgrading——Empirical Analysis on PVAR Model

本文运用面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)对1986—2013年全国29个省份的面板数据进行分析,得出劳动、资本、技术三种生产要素流动对区域外贸增长率有正向效应,究其原因在于,生产要素流动可以增强要素禀赋优势,有利于内生竞争优势和交易效率优势的发挥,符合综合优势理论提出的外贸发展战略。因此,有必要继续加快生产要素的流动,提高资源配置效率,基于综合优势原则进行区域外贸转型升级。

The Third Plenary Session of the 18 th CPC Central Committee proposed to build a new system of open economy.Promoting development and free flow of production factors through opening-up to improving resource collocation efficiency was further verified.After more than 30 years of development,China has surpassed U.S as the largest merchandise trading nation.The aim here is to find out the relationship between the flow of production factors and the growth of foreign trade.Researches from domestic and foreign scholars were focused on the relationship between the foreign trade and the price distortion of the factor market;as to the flow of production factors,the flow of regional elements,factor mobility barriers and elements of liquidity measure;and the effect on economic growth are mainly concerned.Few scholars explored the growth mode of foreign trade from the perspective of the flow of production factors.The aim here is to deal empirically with the following hypothesis;the relationship between the flow of production factors and the growth of regional foreign trade.This article focus on the province level,and analyzed the panel data from 29provinces（1986—2013） using the panel vector autoregressive model（PVAR）.In this paper,we constructed the variables of the model：Regional foreign trade growth rate,labor flow net growth rate,capital flow scale growth rate,technology diffusion degree and growth rate of foreign direct investment.Then the statistical characteristics of them were analyzed in this paper and PVAR of this paper passed the LLC and IPS two methods of the panel unit root test.Then it determined the lag period for the 3 period by using the panel unit root.Finally,these papers got estimate the impulse response and variance decomposition through using the pvar2 program.This paper concluded that the flow of labor,capital,and technology has a positive effect on the growth rate of regional foreign trade,and the influence is gradually increased.In the three kinds of production factors,the technical flow in the interpretation is the largest share in the scale of foreign trade,followed by labor flow,and finally the capital flow.That＇s because the flow of production factors can enhance the advantages of factor endowments,and which is also propitious to exert the advantages from endogenous com-petition and transaction efficiency,which is in accordance with the foreign trade development strategy from the comprehensive advantage theory.According to the above empirical analysis and conclusions,promoting the free flow of production factors,enhancing regional factor endowment advantages,and improving the efficiency of transaction are important approaches to enhance the regional trade growth.So it is necessary to speed up the flow of production factors continually by improving the efficiency of resource allocation,undertake transition and upgrading of regional foreign trade based on the principle of integrated advantages.The diversified development strategy,leapfrog development strategy and transaction efficiency improvement strategy are included in integrated advantages strategy.Diversified development strategy refers that each region chooses the appropriate leading industry according to their real situation,and achieves the transformation.Each region can achieve regional foreign trade transformation and upgrading through the promotion of the flow of production elements.Leaping development strategy refers that a few region access to comprehensive advantages through the flow,accumulation,and reverses of production elements,and achieves the leaping development of regional foreign trade.Transaction efficiency improvement strategy means to improve transaction efficiency,to reduce transaction costs,and to accelerate the process of market during the process of flow,accumulation,and reverse of production elements of regional foreign trade transformation and upgrading.