京津冀及周边地区碳排放驱动因素的贡献作用及其政策含义

Contributions for Driving Forces on Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Its Policy Implication in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Area

京津冀及周边地区的雾霾天气使得控制碳排放的任务尤为迫切。在STIRPAT-Regression模型框架内,建立了碳排放驱动因素的个体模型和区域模型。对这两个模型利用岭回归方法,分析了本区域碳排放驱动因素的贡献和作用。结果表明:经济增速对碳排放的扩大起到了正向贡献且作用最大,使得该区域整体处在碳排放"倒U型曲线"的左侧;技术进步率对碳排放是负向贡献但作用最小;人口增速对各省区市的碳排放有正向贡献然而作用不同。实证结果的政策含义是国务院相关部门通过制定统筹兼顾的协同政策来控制本区域的碳排放。

The haze weather makes the task of controlling carbon emissions is particularly urgent in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas.This paper establishes the individual and regional model within the STIRPAT-Regression modal and identifies by RR the contributions for the driving forces on carbon dioxide Emissions. The results can be showed as follows： for growth of carbon emissions, the economic growth had a most positive contribution and which made the area being the left side of the inverted U curve on carbon emissions; the technical progress rate was negative contribution but played minimal role; the population growth had a positive contribution but role s were different. According to the results, this paper suggests that the relevant departments of the State Council should develop cooperative policies to control carbon emissions.