新疆耕地集约利用及其对棉花生产率的影响分析

Intensive Utilization of Cultivated Land and Its Impact on Cotton Productivity in Xinjiang

采用2001~2013年时间序列数据,在耕地集约利用水平综合评价基础上,运用VAR模型,实证分析耕地集约利用对新疆棉花生产率影响。结果表明：新疆耕地集约利用水平呈波动中上升趋势,且进步显著;耕地集约利用是新疆棉花生产率提高的Granger原因,即有较强的贡献性;在观察期内,耕地集约利用对棉花生产率的效应呈先下降,后增长的趋势。因此,应制定长期耕地治理战略,有序地促进耕地集约化水平,提高棉花生产率,实现棉花产业的健康、稳定发展。

Using the 2001-2013 time-series data, this paper empirically analyzed the impact of intensive utilization of the cultivated cotton producing land in Xinjiang through the comprehensive analysis of the level of intensive use of cultivated land and the use of VAR model as well. The result showed that the level of intensive utilization of cultivated land had been increasingly fluctuated and significantly progressed. The intensive utilization of cultivated land was also the Granger cause of galvanizing cotton productivity in areas of Xinjiang, which simultaneously had contributed largely. The impact of intensive utilization of arable land of cotton productivity had dropped initially and then had beard soaring trend. Therefore the long-terms arable land management strategy must be planned to orderly promote the intensive level of farming land, to improve the productivity of cotton, and achieve the healthy and sustainable development of cotton industry.