华东地区≥10℃积温的时空演变特征

Changes of the Accumulated Temperature above 10℃ in East China

利用1961-2013年华东地区86个气象台站的日平均气温等资料,采用趋势分析法、克里金空间插值法(Kriging)、Mann-kendall突变检验以及Pearson相关分析等方法,分析该区域近53a日平均气温稳定≥10℃期间积温、持续日数、初终日以及积温带的变化特征。结果表明:(1)近53a华东地区日平均气温稳定≥10℃积温及其持续日数呈显著增加趋势,气候倾向率分别为89.71℃?d?10a-1(P<0.01)和2.96d?10a-1(P<0.05),二者主要受初日提前和终日推迟的共同影响,且初日提前的影响更大。(2)日平均气温稳定≥10℃积温及其持续日数在空间分布上呈现明显的纬度地带性和垂直地带性特征,其变化趋势均呈现自东向西、自中部向南北两端递减的规律。(3)随着全球气候变暖,华东地区气候带的分布呈现明显的北移东扩,其中南亚热带、中亚热带的面积不断扩大,分别向北移动1.2、2.2个纬距;北亚热带约向北移动1个纬距,面积有所减小;暖温带的面积不断减小。(4)华东热量资源对平均气温的响应主要表现在积温的上升、持续日数的增加、初日的提前以及终日的延迟。

Based on the surface temperature data of the 86 stations in East China during 1961 to 2013, the author analyzed the variation of accumulated temperature steadily above 10℃ and discussed the characteristics of climatic zones during 1961 to 2013 by using trend analysis, Kriging spatial interpolation method, Mann-kendall mutation test and Pearson correlation analysis. The results showed：（1） in recent 53 years, the accumulated temperature steadily above 10℃ and the duration days were increasing at the rate of 89.71℃·d·10y^-1 （P〈0.01） and 2.96 d·10y^-1（P〈0.05） respectively in East China, this phenomenon was mainly because of the advance of beginning date and the delaying of ending date. Furthermore, the advancing of beginning date was more influential than the delaying of ending date. （2） The accumulated temperature steadily ≥ 10℃ and duration days presented an obvious latitude and vertical zonal characteristic. And the change rate showed a decrease trend from east to west, from the centre to the north and south. （3） Under the background of global warming, the climatic zone had a trend of extending to northward and eastward in East China. South subtropical zone and central subtropical zone was gradually expanding, respectively shift 1.2 and 2.2 degrees. While north subtropical zone and temperate zone showed a decreasing trend. The northern boundary of mid-subtropical zone shifted 2.0°. Overall the climatic zones shifted northward. （4） Responding to temperature rose, the heat resources highlighted the sustained days increased, and the beginning date advanced as well as the ending date delayed..The correlation between the accumulated temperature and the average temperature was the best. Key words： Climate change; Annual accumulated temperature above 10℃; Abrupt change; Climatic zones; Spatial temporal distribution; East China