城市规划中农村剩余劳动力转移规模预测——以昆明市为例

The Prediction on the Scale of Rural Surplus Labor Transfer in Urban Planning: A Case Study of Kunming

预测城镇人口规模是城市规划编制的基础工作。由于我国城镇人口增长主要源于农村剩余劳动力向城镇转移,故对城镇吸纳的农村剩余劳动力规模进行预测显得十分重要。本文以云南省农村剩余劳动力主要转移地——昆明为研究对象,在对其吸纳农村剩余劳动力的特点、过程和机制进行分析的基础上,基于农村农业劳动力的人均收入与城市制造业、建筑业、交通业、批发零售餐饮业、社会服务业劳动力等农村剩余劳动力流入的重点行业的人均收入差距,提出了农村剩余劳动力转移规模的预测方法,并对昆明市2020年吸纳的农村剩余劳动力转移规模进行了预测。本文是对城市规划业内既有人口规模预测方法的有效补充。

The prediction on the urban population size is the fundamental work for the formulation of urban planning. Since urban population growth in China is mainly due to the transfering of rural surplus labor to urban areas, it is of significance to make a reasonable forecast of the scale of the rural surplus labor absorbed by cities. This paper takes Kunming which is the main attraction pole for rural surplus labor in Yunnan Province as an instance, analyzes the characteristics, processes, and mechanisms of the rural surplus labor absorbed by the city. In view of the gap of income per capita between rural agricultural labor and key industries for the inflow of rural surplus labor such as urban manufacturing, construction, transportation, wholesale retail catering, and social services, it proposes a prediction method of the scale of the rural surplus labor transfer and forecasts the scale of the rural surplus labor transfer absorbed by Kunming in 2020. This study is an effective complement to the existing prediction method of population size in urban planning.