市场预期对房价的作用研究——基于DSSW模型和动态面板数据模型的分析

Impacts of Market Participants' Expectations on Real Estate Prices——An Analysis Based on DSSW Model and Dynamic Panel Data Model

在DSSW模型基础上建立了包含4类异质交易者预期的房价模型,采用Matlab软件模拟分析了异质交易者的重要行为参数对房价的叠加影响,并运用动态面板数据模型定量刻画了2001年1月至2012年12月间中国30个省(市、自治区)市场参与者的理性预期对房价的影响效应。结果显示:当不同类型预期发生叠加时,它们对房价的合力影响在方向和强度上都是不同的;预期在不同时段对房价的影响效果是动态变化的;地价、造价、利率对房价的影响有随时间逐渐减弱的趋势;人口因素对房价的作用不显著。

This paper builds an equilibrium model of housing prices which contains four kinds of traders on the basis of DSSW model firstly. Then, it makes a simulation study on real estate prices using Matlab software. At last, it makes a quantitative study on relationship between expectations and prices from January 2001 to December 2012 in Chinag 30 prov- inces （ municipalities and autonomous regions） using dynamic panel data model. The results show that ： when different types of expectations are superimposed, the combined impacts are different; market participants＇ expectations have dynamic effects on prices in different stages ; the influences of land transaction prices, costs of completed housing, and loan rates are weak- ened over time; demographic factor has no significant effect.