摘要
为研究沿海干散货运输市场与其他航运市场的风险传导性,采用GC-MSV模型分析了沿海散货运价与我国进口原油运价波动的相关性和传导效应。研究发现:沿海散货运价市场对进口原油市场的风险传导效应不明显,BDTI西非至中国航线原油运价波动对散货运价市场影响相对显著。我国煤炭价格与原油价格走势具有较高的一致性,其运价波动在一定程度上受到进口原油市场的影响,我国沿海干散货航运企业在运营过程中需要关注进口原油市场波动,规避可能出现的风险。
In order to study the risk conduction of coastal dry bulk transportation market and other markets, this paper uses GC-MSV model to analyze the correlation and conduction effect of coastal bulk freight price and China＇s imported oil freight price fluctuation. The results reveal that risk conduction effect from coastal bulk freight to imported crude oil freight is not significant, and the freight of BDTI West Africa to China has more notable impact on coastal bulk freight market. As China＇s coal prices have a high consistency with crude oil price, and the freight price fluctuation is influenced by imported oil market to some extent. Therefore, China＇s coastal dry bulk shipping companies need to pay attention on the volatility of crude import oil market to avoid possible risks.
出处
《价格月刊》
北大核心
2015年第12期6-10,共5页
基金
教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(编号:20113121110003)
上海海事大学优秀博士学位论文培育项目(编号:2013bxlp008)
