中国与中亚国家区域经济合作的贸易效应研究——基于丝绸之路经济带视角

Research on Trade Effect from Regional Economic Cooperation between China and Central Asian Countries——based on the Perspective of Silk Road Economic Belt

经济全球化和区域一体化的不断深化使得合作融合成为当今世界经济大潮的主旋律。选取中国与中亚国家1998年~2013年的年度数据,通过对经济基本面、外贸依存度、双边相互直接投资和区域文化分析中国与中亚国家开展经济合作的基础性条件,然后采用扩展的贸易引力模型对中国与中亚国家开展经济合作的贸易效应进行研究。结果表明现有区域合作组织对促进区域贸易发展的效果并不明显;地缘毗邻是促进双边贸易增长的显著优势;空间距离对区域贸易发展起反向阻碍作用等。提出加强双边或多边政府沟通,强化区域合作机制的经贸作用;发挥地缘毗邻和文化相近的优势,增进贸易合作;完善交通通信设施建设,减小空间距离对贸易发展的阻碍等。

With the further development of economic globalization and regional integration, cooperation and integration have being the main melody of the tide of world economy. Based on the 1998-2013 annual data, this paper analyzes the basic conditions of economic cooperation between China and Central Asian Countries from economic fundamentals, foreign trade dependence, bilateral mutual direction investment and regional culture, and studies the trade effect by applying expanded trade gravity model. The result proves that the existing regional cooperation organizations cannot promote trade development effectively. Geopolitical adjacent＇is a significant factor which promotes trade development. Trade development is tempered by space distance. Thus, this paper proposes that the bilateral or multilateral governments should strengthen communication, the economic and trade effect of regional cooperation should be enhanced, the advantage of geopolitical adjacent and similar culture should be taken, the trade cooperation should be encouraged, the communication facility should be perfected, and the hindrance on trade development from space distance should be reduced.