宁夏青铜峡灌区年退水量时间序列预测模型研究

Research on time series prediction model of annual return water volume in Qingtongxia irrigation area

针对宁夏青铜峡灌区年退水量预测问题,采用时间序列方法分析了灌区年退水量特性,建立了预测模型,结果发现青铜峡灌区年退水量在年际间相互关联,其时间序列是一个非白噪声非平稳时间序列,一阶差分序列是一个非白噪声平稳序列,建立了ARIMA年退水量时间序列模型,模型模拟的平均相对误差为5.66%,预测的相对误差在5%以内,精度较高,可以用于灌区退水量的预测。

In order to address the prediction problem of return water in Qingtongxia irrigation area,this paper analyzed the properties of annual return water volume and built a prediction model by time series method. The research results showed that the return water volume exhibited a correlation pattern between years. Its time series was a non-white noise and non-stationary series,and its first-order differential sequence was a non-white noise and stationary series. As a result,a time series prediction model of annual return water volume had been established with an average relative simulation error of 5.66% and a relative prediction error up to 5%,demonstrating the high simulation and prediction accuracy of this model. Thereby,it could be used for the prediction of annual return water in irrigation area.