中国煤炭产业产能利用率估算与影响因素实证研究

Empirical Research for Coal Industry Capacity Utilization Rate Estimation and Influencing Factors in China

针对中国煤炭产业产能过剩问题,采用数据包络分析(DEA),考虑资源耗减的影响估算了中国煤炭行业1980-2013年的产能利用率,然后建立煤炭产能过剩的VAR模型,对煤炭产能过剩的主要影响因素进行实证分析,并利用协整检验和Granger因果检验结果来进一步验证煤炭产能过剩影响因素的理论分析。研究发现:首先,中国煤炭产业产能利用率比较低,1980-2013年年均产能利用率仅为72.03%,远低于美国采矿业1972-2013年年均产能利用率87.33%,因此提升中国煤炭行业产能利用率的潜力较大。其次,中国煤炭行业在2012年产能利用率仅为69.88%,产能过剩严重,急需缓解产能过剩问题。最后通过理论分析和VAR模型实证分析发现产能过剩是投资过度和市场供需比共同作用的结果,但投资过度的影响程度更大。在投资过度层面,煤炭企业和地方政府构成了投资的主要推动力,两者都因考虑自身利润最大化对煤炭固定资产盲目投资,地方政府与煤企的投资冲动是造成投资过度、产能建设严重超前的重要原因。而煤炭市场供需变化即产能集中释放、需求不振、进口冲击,在一定程度上加剧了煤炭产能过剩的形成。

Aiming at the problem of coal industry over capacity in China,we use data envelopment analysis（DEA）to estimate the capacity utilization rate in coal industry of China from 1980 to 2013considering the influence of resource depletion.Then we establish VAR model of coal industry over capacity to analyze the main factors affecting that in practice.Furthermore,we confirm these factors according to the results of the Granger causality test and co-integration test in theory.The study found that：First of all,coal industry capacity utilization rate was low in China,the average capacity utilization rate was only 72.03%in 1980-2013,which was far below the American mining capacity by an annual rate of 87.33% in 1972-2013.Thus,there will be great potential in improving China coal industry capacity utilization rate.Secondly,there was severe over capacity in coal industry in 2012,for the utilization rate was only 69.88%.So it is urgent to solve this problem.Finally,we found that excessive investment and market supply and demand act together resulting in the coal industry over capacity according to the analysis in practice by VAR model and in theory,but excessive investment has more effect.On the levels of excessive investment,both the coal companies and local government constitute the main driving forces,they all invest blindly in coal industry to get their maximal profit.Impulsive investment of the local government and coal companies lead to the major reason for excessive investment and serious lead capacity construction.And the change of supply and demand in coal is characterized by great amount of supply in short time,low market demand for coal,and effect of imported coal,all these contribute to the formation of coal over capacity to some extent.