国际大宗商品价格下跌会否带来输入性通缩——一个非竞争投入产出价格影响模型分析框架

Will Commodities' Falling Price Import Deflation?A Non-competitive Input-output Price Model Framework

基于33部门中国投入产出表,建立非竞争投入产出价格影响模型,定量测算大宗商品下跌对中国物价水平的最大潜在影响,发现进口采掘业部门价格一次性下降50%的情况下,将拉低国内CPI、PPI1.10和3.63个百分点,并且对重工业的价格影响要大于轻工业和服务业。从历史结果看,大宗商品价格对中国物价的传导效应呈现上升态势,CPI从1998年的0.17提高到2011年的1.10。政府可以通过降息降准、提高资源税、淘汰过剩产能的方式缓冲输入通缩的冲击,保持物价总水平运行在合理区间。

Based on input-output table of China with 33 sectors,we establishes a non-competitive input-output price model to estimate the maximum potential impact of the fall in commodity price levels.We find when the price drop 50%,it will push down CPI,PPI,1.10 and 3.63 percentage points respectively.The heavy industries are affected much more severe than light industries and service industries.Look back into the history,the international commodity price became more important to domestic CPI and PPI.In the short term the government can cut interest rates,increase resource tax and refined oil tax,eliminate excess capacity to buffer the impact on domestic price,avoiding market deflation expectations.