最低工资影响中国制造业就业的实证检验——基于中国省级动态面板数据的系统GMM分析

Empirical Test on the Influence of Minimum Wage on the Employment of China's Manufacturing Industry——Based on Systematic GMM Analysis of China's Provincial Dynamic Panel Data

基于中国2003～2013年的省级面板数据，选取制造业就业作为研究对象，利用动态面板模型分别对最低工资、最低工资与平均工资的比重和就业的关系进行了深入的经验分析。研究表明：最低工资的提高一定程度上可以促进就业。最低工资与平均工资的比重和制造业就业存在非线性关系，且呈倒“U型”曲线，临界值为0．375；东中西部的临界值分别为0．377、0．385、0．356。这一结论的政策含义是：目前全国绝大多数省份最低工资与平均工资的比重偏低，未达到临界值，最低工资标准仍有较大上调空间；如果数理统计具有现实意义，提高最低工资可能会促进制造业就业水平。

Based on Chinese provincial panel data from 2003 to 2013, the paper selects em- ployment of manufacturing industry as the research subject, and an empirical analysis is made on the relationship between minimum wage and the proportion of minimum wages and average wages by using dynamic panel model respectively. Research shows that the increase of minimum wage promotes employment in a sense. The proportion of minimum wages and average wages has nonlin- ear relations.hip with the employment of manufacturing industry and assumes the inverted ＂U＂ type curve, with the critical value of 0. 375. The critical values of eastern, central and western China are 0.377, 0. 385, and 0.356 respectively. Policy implications of this conclusion are ： currently, the proportions of minimum wages and average wages in most provinces are lower than the critical value, and the standard of minimum wage can be further improved. If mathematical statistics has any practical significance, raising the minimum wage may promote employment of manufacturing industry.